Domestic Air Travel Demand Forecasting Model in the Philippines

Abstract

A study is conducted to develop an air travel demand forecasting model to predict the volume of air passengers travelling in specific
routes in the Philippines. The characteristics of domestic air travel demand in the Philippines are investigated through the analysis of
statistical data and determination of the correlational relationship between the domestic air passenger traffic, population and gross
domestic product (GDP) of the country. Air shares of every route are determined as a function of fare and travel time between the two most competing modes of inter-island travel in the country namely; water and air transport modes. Using the modified gravity model as a function of population, gross domestic product, air mode share and distance, the air travel demand forecasting model is verified. Results show that 62% of the variation of the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables, i.e. population, GDP, distance, air share, in the model.